Saturday, October 10, 2009

NFL Picks - Week 5

Finally! I'm going to elaborate on my NFL picks (more-than-partially because I'm not waiting until 12:50 p.m. on Sunday to enter them in my column). For some reason, I think this week of pro games will be really unpredictable and really tough to pick. But anyway, here we go.

Minnesota (-10) over St. Louis
Isn't this an obvious pick? St. Louis may be the worst team in the league and last time I checked, the Vikings still had Adrian Peterson. A.P. just might score more points and account for more yards than the entire Rams offense will. Are there even any reasons to think about taking the Rams? Let's see, Kyle Boller is the quarterback and they've scored 24 points TOTAL in four games. You couldn't give me enough points to take St. Louis here.

Dallas (-8) over Kansas City
I really don't like the Cowboys. At all. But the Chiefs have been quietly horrid, especially on offense, where they rank 31st. Does that surprise anyone else? K.C.'s new head coach Todd Haley coordinated one of the best offenses in the game when he was with Arizona, and seriously, it's not like the Chiefs don't have weapons. Matt Cassel? Ok, I understand he may be a one-year-wonder. Dwayne Bowe's good, right? Meh, and injured. Larry Johnson? What happened to THAT guy?

Carolina (-3.5) over Washington
I've made the mistake of picking the Redskins over the Rams, Lions and Buccaneers in the last three weeks, and I've gotten burned in all three. So it's that simple, I won't do it again. I don't even care that if by result of my anti-Washington picks I happen to pick Jake Delhomme. That's fine. Kinda.

Philadelphia (-15) over Tampa Bay
I don't think I've ever seen an NFL line this high. Although I can't say I disagree with it. McNabb is back and the Eagles offense is full of pure playmakers. And not to mention that Tampa is really, really bad at playing football. And I've heard that if you're going to be an NFL franchise, you should probably be good at playing football, but that's just what I've heard.

N.Y. Giants (-14.5) over Oakland
Another insanely high line, and another agreement from me. The Giants are a well-oiled machine. I didn't understand when, before the season, everyone was saying how the lack of a number one receiver was going to kill them offensively. I said having three number two wide-outs was just as good. But now with the emergence of the other Steve Smith (for now), the G-men have a number one and a bunch of number two's, which is wonderful news for Eli Manning.

Cleveland over Buffalo (-6)
Here it is, Cleveland's best (only?) chance to win a game all year. They might not win, but Buffalo hasn't been anything special recently, so I'm expecting a close game, and I sure can't wait to watch it on CBS' regional coverage instead of a much better game!!!! (swallowing sadness)

Baltimore (-8.5) over Cincinnati
As a Steeler fan, Baltimore is scary good, especially with a rejuvenated Willis McGahee scoring mass amounts of touchdowns and Joe Flacco avoiding the sophomore slump. The Pittsburgh/Baltimore games are going to be lots of fun to watch this season.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit
For some reason, this matchup scares me. I had the same feeling when the Steelers played the Bengals two weeks ago, and we know how that ended, but I think the feeling just means that I'm terrified that 2009 is turning into 2006. Of course, minus Big Ben's face meeting the windshield of a car.

Atlanta over San Francisco (-2.5)
Best game of the week. Matt Ryan gets his swagger back and, hopefully for my fantasy team, he gets his swagger back to Roddy White. Roddy, I could use some catches, thanks. Another noteworthy item: Even after he was dick-ish in contract negotiations forever, I still can't wait for Michael Crabtree to don the 49'er jersey, he's just simply fun to watch.

Denver over New England (-3)
I just wrote an entire column about how Kyle Orton was a winner. You think I'm going to turn back that quickly? I think not. But this is more about Denver's defense than anything else. Brian Dawkins is still one of the scariest humans on this planet that I love watching no matter what team he's playing for. And Tom Brady just hasn't looked like Tom Brady, so I have faith in the unbeaten Broncos to stay that way.

Houston over Arizona (-5.5)
Arizona = overrated. Houston = overrated. So it's the battle of the OR's, and I'm sticking with my sleeper. I haven't picked against them yet, and I need this to be a statement week so I stop making fun of myself for making this pick. Can't I at least get to week double-digits before I start throwing my predictions in the trash bin?

Jacksonville (PK) over Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck just looks...old. I know he's only in his early-thirties, but gosh, that guy went bald faster than anyone I've ever seen. And he's been injured too, so that doesn't bode well for the 'Hawks. I'll take Jacksonville by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee
Tennessee as the best 0-4 team ever? News Flash! They're still 0-4! I don't get it, they weren't that good last year anyway. They skated through an easy schedule and got beat by a better team in January. Then they lost Albert Haynesworth and, somehow, that trade went under the radar because people were still picking them to win the AFC South. Pah-lease.

N.Y. Jets (-1.5) over Miami
I just don't think the Jets defense will be fooled by anything Miami throws at them. And speaking of the Wildcat, the first full Dolphins game I watched since the inception of the pro-style-option-offense was two weeks ago on MNF, and I was really surprised that Miami doesn't fun it more than 20 percent of its' plays. I was shocked. Seriously. If it has worked so well in single games in the past, why don't they make it a huge chunk of the entire offensive playbook?

This was fun, let's do it again next week. Thanks for reading.

Last week: 9-5
Overall: 38-24

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