College Football: A Look Back, A Look Forward

Preseason college football polls are awful. They always have been, and they make for mass confusion at the end of the season. But I finally know why they exist.
Preseason polls are created so the voters can see how their predictions held up at the end of the season.
I'm finding out that the best part of making predictions is going back at the end of the year and finding out just how good (or bad) you did. My first year of college football predictions actually went pretty well. Here's the look-back. (My preseason picks are in red (wrong) and green (correct))

---------------------------------

Heisman Trophy Winner: Colt McCoy, Texas

Actual: Mark Ingram, Alabama

ACC Champion: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

I'm very proud of this one...GT had its' best season since the '50's and I rode the triple-option train all year long.

Big Ten Champion: Penn State Nittany Lions

Actual: Ohio State Buckeyes

It's quite funny, actually, if you know anything about the recent history of Ohio State football, it seems like the Buckeye fan base loses faith in the team after they perennially lose to USC. It was the same story this year. OSU loses to Southern Cal and to Purdue, the season is seemingly lost, and then they run the table to get to their first Rose Bowl in forever. It's about time the state of Ohio had a better-than-disappointing football team (the Bengals' great season coupled with Cincy's BCS berth gives Ohio THREE postseason teams...is the apocalypse coming?)

Big East Champion: South Florida Bulls

Actual: Cincinnati Bearcats

It may look like a horrible pick, but USF was crushed by injuries, and both Cincinnati and South Florida were talented and unranked at the start of the season (how ridiculous does THAT sound for Cincy?).

Big Twelve Champion: Texas Longhorns

There was never any doubt. This pick was really too easy.

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon Ducks

I'm most proud of my Oregon pick. For as much as I was on the GT train all year, I was driving the Oregon bandwagon from day one (yes, even after they got dismantled on the blue turf at Boise). UO's win over Arizona was one of my favorite games of the year, and, as always, Oregon's jerseys never disappointed.

SEC Champion: Florida Gators

Actual: Alabama Crimson Tide

Very glad this pick didn't come true. Alabama was clearly the better team in the SEC Championship game (and all year, for that matter), but if Florida would have won the SEC, Tebow would have been in serious talk for the Heisman, and as I've said before, that would have been a travesty.

MAC Champion: Central Michigan Chippewas

Mountain West Champion: TCU Horned Frogs

WAC Champion: Boise State Blue Fields

These three were no-brainers from the beginning.

Conference USA Champion: Houston Cougars

Actual: East Carolina Pirates

I'm legitimately upset about Houston not winning C-USA. ECU needed OT to upset the Cougs in the title game, and you probably didn't even think about reading about how it happened, because it's C-USA, right? You saw the headline and glanced over it to read about how Tiger had an affair with Joan Rivers or someone (too soon?), but I lost my mind when I heard. Case Keenum isn't a "Rick", but he was "Rick-diculous" in 2009, routinely throwing for over 500 yards in single games. East Carolina, prepare to enter my doghouse, effective immediately.

Sun Belt Champion: Florida International Golden Panthers

Actual: Troy Trojans

It was a shot in the dark, ok? I had no realistic chance at getting this one right.

Do they matter anymore?

Notre Dame: 7-5

Actual: 6-6

Michigan: 6-6

Actual: 5-7

BCS Bowl Predictions:

BCS National Championship Game: Tim Tebow's vs. Colt 45's

Rose Bowl (of course, presented by Citi): Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Sugar Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Boise State Blue Fields

Orange Bowl: South Florida Bulls vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Fiesta Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Southern California Trojans

Missed on: TCU, Iowa, Cincinnati

Season picks: 48-25 (wow, not bad for a first year)

---------------------------------

Now that we've recapped the season, complained about the BCS and watched Tebow get knocked out for the ump-teenth time (the song is the best part of that video), we can go bowling. I'll give you today's picks, and then get the rest of them out there in a day or two.

New Mexico: Fresno State - 33; Wyoming - 14

St. Petersburg: Rutgers - 24; UCF - 23

Thanks for reading.

p.s. I've gotten a bunch of inquiries about the Winter Olympics Competition, and my answer is still the same...I have no idea whether I won or not. Hopefully I'll be finding out in the next few days, but I can't say enough how much I appreciate the support I got from all of you. If you voted for me or told me you read my writing, even if I don't personally know you, I can't thank you enough. Even if I don't win, seeing all the support I got from everyone in my life will be the silver lining.

(Follow-up) Three Hours of More Disappointment, Followed by 21 Yards of Pure Joy

     Last night, I was ecstatic.
     Tonight, I was franticly worried.
     All I needed was seven points from Ray Rice to get my fantasy football team into the playoffs. To put it into perspective, I'm talking about a running back who was averaging 20 per game.  Seven points is the equivalent to fifty total yards and two catches out of the backfield. It was just that easy.
     Well, after an opening-drive fumble by Rice (-2 pts.) and Ray completely disappearing as his team struggled on offense, my playoff hopes came down to a drive that, the scope of the NFL, did. not. matter.
     See, Rice was stuck on five points for the majority of the fourth quarter, and if that were to finish that way, Team B (and consequently me) would lose by two points.
     Baltimore was down 27-14 with less than two minutes to go.  Green Bay was going to win, there was no doubt.  All it would take was one catch for three or more yards (Rice had 17 yards receiving to that point) to make me postseason bound.  But Joe Flacco looked awful.  It looked like he'd never complete another pass.  And I had just about given up hope and turned the game off to catch up on Family Guy and Flashforward.  But then it happened.
     On first-and-15 and from the shotgun, Flacco handed the ball to Rice (!!!), and Rice found a hole in the line and exploded into the Packers secondary.  He got the first down.  I checked the box score.  He only needed 17 rushing yards to get two more fantasy points.
     MIKE TIRICO, DID HE GET 17 YARDS?

Mike: "a 21-yard run for Rice gives the Ravens a first-down and, oh, this just in, Grant Burkhardt's fantasy football has just secured the last spot in the playoffs! Listen to the crowd roar!"

(That's a loose translation of course, I wasn't able to hear what he was saying over the Lambeau Field crowd. I just figured that's what he said.)

     Incredible!

     A side-note: I'm realizing that garbage-time drives are horrific for fantasy owners.  From Favre's TD pass to Harvin to Rice's 21-yard miracle, I've had enough football for a while.

     But the playoffs begin this weekend. And Team "Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe" (say it fast for full effect) is going to be playing for the Championship.

     Score.

A Moment of Disappointment, Followed by One of Joy

     If you know me even a small amount, you probably know that I'm an avid fantasy sports player.  I've played everything from fantasy football to fantasy bass fishing.  Yes, I'm insane, I get that a lot actually.  But have you tried it? Fantasy sports are addicting. Ask my dad, who was in the room talking to me about fantasy sports when I explained my situation to him.
     One of my fantasy football teams was sitting on the outside of the playoff picture looking in coming into this week, the final week of the regular season.  I needed to beat a 9-3 division leader (a week after beating the then-top-ranked team in the league) and get help to grab the last spot in the postseason.  Highly unlikely.
     So, for the second straight week, my team played inspired (fantasy) football and beat a tough opponent (you'll find that I refer to my fantasy team as if it were a real football team) by a bunch.
     Now I needed help.  The team in front of me, Team A, HAD to lose or my streak of consecutive postseason appearances (six) would be over.  But, as of 8:00 p.m., it didn't look likely.  Team A had a twenty-five-point lead and Brett Favre left to play, whereas its' opponent, Team B, had the Vikings defense, Percy Harvin, and Baltimore's Ray Rice.  Definitely going to be close.
    As the Sunday night game goes along, it becomes apparent that Brett simply doesn't have it tonight, and I might have a chance to squeak into the playoffs.  My dad and I are talking about this possibility, and he says that as long as Favre, who my dad is playing against this week, doesn't throw a touchdown in the last two minutes, we're both making the playoffs in our respective leagues.
    Well, as Favre would do, he drove the Vikings down to the Cardinals 31-yard line.  I'll let Al Michaels take it from here.

Al: "Favre back to pass, steps aside the rush and slings it down the middle, and it's caught for the touchdown!"...

     Utter devastation. My head hits my comforter in pure disbelief, and my dad's slumps to his chest. No playoffs for us this year.

..."to Percy Harvin!"

WHAT? YES! 

     My room became a place of complete euphoria.

     Explanation: Because Brett's pass went to Harvin and not someone else, Team B got a point for the reception, three for the yardage, and six for the touchdown.  So instead of being down by 17 going into tomorrow's game, Team B is only down seven. And as long as Ray Rice doesn't get injured or have a horrid game, I'm going to make the playoffs. Incredible.

     Honestly, I know I'm a big proponent of sports. I love them, and they love me back.  I say this a lot, sure, but emotion like that only happens in sports. Even if they're fantasy sports.

     Oh, and my dad? Euphoria never hit my old man.  His postseason hopes were dashed by Favre's garbage-time touchdown.

     There's always next year, dad.

     (Fantasy) Sports can be cruel.

  

Quickies on NFL Week 12

- How I still love CBS regional coverage. Everyone in Pittsburgh got to see the Brownies/Bungals snoozer instead of Peyton Manning displaying brilliance against the Texans.

- Speaking of Houston, wha-ha-happened to the Texans? Not just today in their seemingly inevitable collapse, but last week in a brutal loss to Vince Young and Tennessee. If they had beaten the Titans last week, they'd be 6-5 (even with this weeks' loss) and still in the playoff picture.

- Who's Chris Redman?

- Josh Freeman looks pretty good as a pro quarterback.

- There are quite a few bad teams in the league this year, and they seem to always play each other. Seattle/St. Louis was the headlining U.G.H. (Ugly. Gruesome. Horrible) game of the week. And it was just that, a bad game. In other news, I was playing Justin Forsett in two fantasy leagues this week, which is AWESOME.

- I was wrong.

- I'll be the first to tell you I wasn't pulling for Vince Young when he first came out of college. I just wasn't a fan, mostly because in his extremely mediocre rookie season he got all the credit for winning games (when in reality, Vince had a completion percentage around 50% and his defense single-handedly won a few games without the offense even scoring a TD). But now, I've whole-heartedly jumped on the VY bandwagon. He's learned the ways of NFL quarterbacks and is playing at a level we'd only seen from him while he was at Texas. His "Comeback Player of the Year" story peaked with a tremendous 99-yard drive to beat Arizona on the final play. Way to go, Vince.

- Are the Eagles good? Or are they bad? I have no idea. The same goes for you, San Francisco, and you, Jacksonville.

- Ricky Williams is back...seriously.

- Someone needs to make a t-shirt that says "Aaron Rodgers is My Homeboy."

- Still no reason to believe in Dallas, Denver, or Cincinnati.

On a side note, there are less than five hours remaining in the voting period of the Olympic blogging contest. YOU can help me go to Vancouver to blog about the Olympics! www.officewintergames.com/vote.aspx ...voting ends TONIGHT at 11:59 PST (2:59 EST). Thank you so much for your support. I love all of you.

NCAA Big Game Pick 'Em - Week 12

I'm thankful for my great family, wonderful friends, Thursday football, college basketball, Allen Iverson and Tyronn Lue, Simply Orange, boxes of chocolate ice cream, turkey, tryptophan, Thanksgiving naps, Aaron Rodgers, Walrusmen, Jay Cutler's interceptions, waking up to a bunch of "Happy Thanksgiving!" text messages, the Jake Delhomme after-interception face, having people tell me they're "voting for you every day!", Tyler Thigpen circa 2008, Olympic curling, and whoever invented the Turkey Bowl.

After my personal bye week (due to finals and a lack of sleep), I'm back at the grind...let's start with some Turkey Day NFL picks and a few important college picks.

NFL (gobble, gobble):

Green Bay (-11.5) over Detroit

I hope they never change these games, no matter how bad the Lions get. Seriously, what other time during the season can ESPN.com's headline be about Detroit and no one thinks twice? Plus, you don't want to be watching a barnburner shortly after you've eaten six-to-eight pounds of turkey. A nice, easy, simple win by Green Bay will help your stomach digest all that Thanksgiving has to offer. On a side note: last week, as the Steelers were busy losing to the Chiefs, I got the pleasure of watching the Lions/Browns game (thank you very much, CBS regional coverage). And let me tell you, that game ended up being the best game I've seen all year, and it was made even better because we were watching with a Browns fan.

Oakland over Dallas (-13.5)

Probably a stupid pick, but after Dallas almost got goose-egged by the Redskins (of all teams), I think 13.5 might be a little bit on the high side. And now I suddenly remember why the Raiders are so, so bad. But I remember it conveniently after already making my pick. Great.

N.Y. Giants (-5) over Denver

I want the Broncos to win this game, I really do. And I can't believe I'm picking against The Winner. But I am, only because Eli and Company looked like they were semi-back last week, and because I don't want ANY team to gain an AFC Wild Card spot if my sleeper Texans aren't going to make it. Can't we take a year off from the W.C.?

NCAA:

Ohio Bobcats - 27 Temple Owls - 21 (OT)

First, if you're wondering "WHY THIS GAME?" I'll enlighten you. I'm a Bobcat, through and through (even if I've called for Frank Solich's old-fashioned style of football to be canned). And second, the ramifications are huge. The winner wins the MAC East and moves on to the MAC Championship game early next month. For Ohio, two wins in the next three (including a bowl game, assuming they're chosen) means a TEN win season, and that would be an incredible turnaround after the 4-8 stink-bomb they put up last year. O-H...I-O, in a great one.

Pittsburgh Panthers - 23 West Virginia Mountaineers - 20

WHOOPS! Forgot to pick this game, but I'm doing it now (three hours before game time, just so you know it's legitimate). I live in Pittsburgh, yes, but I'm not a huge Pitt football fan. However, when Shady McCoy and the Panthers ended West Virginia's national title hopes in 2007, I rejoiced alone in my basement. Now Pitt has a chance to get to a BCS game if they win the next two, so the Mountaineers have a chance at redemption. Does Pat White still play at WVU? No? Ok, I'll take Pitt, thank you very much.

South Carolina Gamecocks - 23 Clemson Tigers - 14

Simple: SEC > ACC. That's all. Although C.J. Spiller is a stud.

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 30 Oklahoma Sooners - 23

With the victory, Oklahoma State stays alive for a BCS at-large bid (which they don't deserve, even though I picked them to get there in the preseason - there's a chance the Pokes would get in over unbeaten Boise State, and that's just shenanigans). I really want Boise to get to the BCS, but I want my picks to be right. Oh, how torn I am. Tie, please?

BYU Cougars - 33 Utah Utes - 14

Too much offense for the Utes to handle, as Max Hall runs it up in the second half after Utah keeps it close in the first. Talk about your underachieving mid-majors, huh? Utah lost a lot of players after last season, so their drop-off is almost understandable, but BYU just TANKED after a program-defining win over the Sooners in week one. Ouchtown, population B.Y.(YOU)., bro.

Stanford Cardinal - 30 Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 27

Toby Gerhart, meet Swiss cheese (ND rush D). Toby likes Swiss Cheese. Toby eats Swiss cheese at all three meals. And on a side note, how hysterical was it that Jimmy Clausen got sucker-punched? I'll tell you. My decidedly anti-ND family and I will undoubtedly laugh about it over turkey in a few hours.

Have a marvelous holiday. Remember to vote for me for the Olympics!!! Thanks for readin'.

NFL Picks - Week 10

Last week could be summed up in one word...dismal. I had another awful week, and this weeks games aren't getting any easier to pick.

San Francisco (-3.5) over Chicago

One of many "U.G.H." (Ugly. Gruesome. Horrible.) games this week, including loads of talented, but mediocre NFL players. Leading that list are the two quarterbacks, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith. Cutler's been awful at times this season, to say the least. But both defenses are good and I think we'll see a battle of two up-and-coming tight ends: Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen. I think both will catch touchdowns.

Jacksonville over N.Y. Jets (-7)

I haven't even heard much of anything about the Jets recently, which means that Sanchez is playing poorly enough to get himself dropped out of the media spotlight. On the other hand, Maurice Jones-Drew is putting up crazy numbers, and is helping one of my fantasy teams immensely. Jags for the upset.

Denver (-3.5) over Washington

This would be another "U.G.H." game if Washington weren't so awful. I mean, if it weren't for the Browns, I'd say the Redskins were the worst team in football. But, fortunately for Washington, the Browns exist as an NFL franchise. Denver needs to get back on the right track. Playing a pushover game never hurt anyone.

Pittsburgh (-7) over Cincinnati

The Bengals are much improved, as I thought they'd be, but I still don't think they're on the level of a healthy Steelers team. I do see this game being quite competitive, and I probably shouldn't pick the Steelers with the line as high as it is, but I have faith in Ben and the offense. But it sure will be weird with a November game at Heinz Field being played in 70 degree weather.

Tennessee (-7) over Buffalo

I watch a lot of television, especially ESPN. So when T.O. got put in Buffalo, I rejoiced wholeheartedly. That meant I wouldn't have to hear his constant whining from the spotlight in Dallas or Philly. And doesn't that make the world a slightly better place? Sports feel less pure with all his complaining.

Detroit over Minnesota (-17)

Don't get me wrong, the Vikings are going to win, but I just don't think they'll win by more than 17. Maybe 16. Or 15. But not 17 or more.

New Orleans (-14) over St. Louis

Is it me or have the Saints been a little flat ever since the game at Miami a few weeks ago? They haven't won a game convincingly since then, but getting the Rams on the schedule is a sight for sore eyes. Another noteworthy item: Reggie Bush is finding the end zone all of a sudden? That's even more surprising with Pierre Thomas in the same backfield.

Atlanta (-1.5) over Carolina

I just refuse to take Jake Delhomme until he shows me any sign of him being an NFL quarterback. First, and best way to do that? Throw the ball to Steve Smith, please. But for now, the Falcons are going to ride Michael Turner's broad shoulders to another W.

Tampa Bay over Miami (-10)

A team with a rookie quarterback, a rookie coach, and coming off their first win of the season gets 10 points? That's easy money (if I was actually a gambler, which I'm not).

Kansas City over Oakland (-2)

The "U.G.H." Game of the Year! I don't. even. care.

Arizona (-8.5) over Seattle

To begin the year, I saw this match-up as the decider in the NFC West, but now, it's only a stepping stone for the Cards on their way to another division title. What happened to Seattle's defense? A few years ago, I could always rely on the 'Hawks D to score reliable amounts of fantasy points every week, but now they're just horrid. Larry Fitzgerald...Happy Early Thanksgiving!

Philadelphia over San Diego (-1)

This is a toss up. On one side, I like what I've seen from McNabb and all his receivers, but on the other side, I think the Chargers are about due for an offensively charged (pun totally intended) game. I just don't think it'll happen this week.

Dallas (-3) over Green Bay

Every once in a while, I go with the reverse psychology pick, and this is my once in a while. Green Bay was one of my Super Bowl teams, and I really want to see the Pack start to play well, especially on defense. So I'm going to take the Cowboys, which I really (really) (really) don't want to do, but if it gets Aaron Rodgers to stay upright in the pocket for the rest of the year, I'll bite the bullet.

Indy (-3) over New England

Hopefully, and most likely, this will be a wonderful game to watch. In this rivalry, it always is. I've got faith in Peyton in this thriller. Also, I'd like to give a shout-out to the most underrated receiver in the entire league, Reggie Wayne. Seriously, what is it with Colts receivers getting overlooked in the "Best WR" discussion? First, Marvin Harrison and now Wayne. The guy's a machine.

Baltimore (-11) over Cleveland

Here's the deal. This line isn't nearly close enough to reality. So I've set my own. Baltimore minus 23.5 sounds better. Baltimore 31, Cleveland 7. The seven points for the Brownies is generous, too.

Last week: 6-7

Overall: 72-56-1

Thanks for reading.

NFL Picks - Week 9

After my first under-.500 week of the season, here comes the rebound week.

Jacksonville (-6.5) over Kansas City

But the question is: Will anyone see this game? Or, better yet, will anyone care? Both answers: No (emphatically).

Baltimore over Cincinnati (-3)

And now the Bengals begin their descent to the 8-8 mark that they deserve. Cincy has been the overachiever of the season until now, and Baltimore needs to continue to get back into the AFC North picture. Joe Flacco is a great start on fantasy teams this week, trust me.

Indianapolis (6.5) over Houston

This is one of those picks I'm going to regret in an hour's time (2:00 p.m.). I haven't picked against the Texans all season, and I shouldn't start now, but I will. Want to know why? I would argue for Peyton Manning as the greatest quarterback of all-time. And I think I'd win. Watch a home Colts game and this is what you hear when Peyton is changing things up at the line. ................. You hear no sound whatsoever from the crowd, who seems like they're trying to hear every word of a beautiful theatre production instead of distracting the defense.

Atlanta (-9) over Washington

God, the Redskins are bad. And Roddy White is single-handedly saving me in fantasy this season.

Green Bay (-10) over Tampa Bay

Here's to you, Aaron Rodgers, you are the 'Pimp of the 2009 Fantasy Season'. Now if only you could get some pass protection. Or if only my fantasy team could find a ground game.

Arizona over Chicago (-3)

This is one of those horrible lines you see every week. You know, the "Horribly Underachieving getting points at the Horribly Overrated, and you still can't figure out if either defense is really any good" game.

Miami over New England (10.5)

Might be closer than we think, but this just doesn't seem like a game the Patriots will lose, does it? I really don't think that, after last years' blowout in Foxborough, that the Dolphins will EVER beat Belichick again. He might put the "Curse of the Cut-Off Hoodie" on them. It's possible. New England by nine.

New Orleans (-13) over Carolina

Jake Delhomme against a top-five NFL team? That's all. Also, I'm thinking Carolina is that team most likely to reach and take Tim Tebow in next years' NFL draft, and regret it immediately.

Detroit over Seattle (-10)

Detroit's finally healthy (somewhat) and the Seahawks have looked awful lately. For the record, I think the 'Hawks will win, but it'll be close.

San Francisco (-4) over Tennessee

I'm really pulling for Vince Young, I swear, but this isn't the time for him to win. Maybe next year, Vince.

San Diego over N.Y. Giants (-5)

Another horrible spread to pick. Rivers should have a field day against the awful Giants secondary. I'd say Chargers by seven or eight. On a side-note, LT FINALLY SCORED A TOUCHDOWN! But wait, I bet he notches less than double-digit fantasy points this week. One of those Willie Parker patented "17-for59" days.

Dallas over Philadelphia (-3)

Not buying into the Eagles yet, but then again, I don't like the Cowboys either. I smell an upset, however, and I think the Cowboys will run the ball effectively against Philly to get the win.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Denver

I like this matchup for the Steelers, but the fact that it's in Denver worries me slightly. Oh yeah, and we're playing Kyle Orton's Neck Beard. Oh crap, maybe I don't like this matchup anymore.

Last week: 6-7

Overall: 66-49-1

Thanks for readin'.

NFL Picks - Week 7

Kansas City over San Diego (-5)

Indianapolis (-13) over St. Louis

Chicago over Cincinnati (-1.5)

Green Bay (-7.5) over Cleveland

Pittsburgh (-4) over Minnesota

New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay

Houston (-3) over San Francisco

Oakland over N.Y. Jets (-6)

Buffalo over Carolina (-7)

New Orleans (-6.5) over Miami

Atlanta over Dallas (-4)

N.Y. Giants (-7) over Arizona

Philadelphia (-7) over Washington

Last week: 8-6

Overall: 53-37

NFL Picks - Week 5

Finally! I'm going to elaborate on my NFL picks (more-than-partially because I'm not waiting until 12:50 p.m. on Sunday to enter them in my column). For some reason, I think this week of pro games will be really unpredictable and really tough to pick. But anyway, here we go.

Minnesota (-10) over St. Louis

Isn't this an obvious pick? St. Louis may be the worst team in the league and last time I checked, the Vikings still had Adrian Peterson. A.P. just might score more points and account for more yards than the entire Rams offense will. Are there even any reasons to think about taking the Rams? Let's see, Kyle Boller is the quarterback and they've scored 24 points TOTAL in four games. You couldn't give me enough points to take St. Louis here.

Dallas (-8) over Kansas City

I really don't like the Cowboys. At all. But the Chiefs have been quietly horrid, especially on offense, where they rank 31st. Does that surprise anyone else? K.C.'s new head coach Todd Haley coordinated one of the best offenses in the game when he was with Arizona, and seriously, it's not like the Chiefs don't have weapons. Matt Cassel? Ok, I understand he may be a one-year-wonder. Dwayne Bowe's good, right? Meh, and injured. Larry Johnson? What happened to THAT guy?

Carolina (-3.5) over Washington

I've made the mistake of picking the Redskins over the Rams, Lions and Buccaneers in the last three weeks, and I've gotten burned in all three. So it's that simple, I won't do it again. I don't even care that if by result of my anti-Washington picks I happen to pick Jake Delhomme. That's fine. Kinda.

Philadelphia (-15) over Tampa Bay

I don't think I've ever seen an NFL line this high. Although I can't say I disagree with it. McNabb is back and the Eagles offense is full of pure playmakers. And not to mention that Tampa is really, really bad at playing football. And I've heard that if you're going to be an NFL franchise, you should probably be good at playing football, but that's just what I've heard.

N.Y. Giants (-14.5) over Oakland

Another insanely high line, and another agreement from me. The Giants are a well-oiled machine. I didn't understand when, before the season, everyone was saying how the lack of a number one receiver was going to kill them offensively. I said having three number two wide-outs was just as good. But now with the emergence of the other Steve Smith (for now), the G-men have a number one and a bunch of number two's, which is wonderful news for Eli Manning.

Cleveland over Buffalo (-6)

Here it is, Cleveland's best (only?) chance to win a game all year. They might not win, but Buffalo hasn't been anything special recently, so I'm expecting a close game, and I sure can't wait to watch it on CBS' regional coverage instead of a much better game!!!! (swallowing sadness)

Baltimore (-8.5) over Cincinnati

As a Steeler fan, Baltimore is scary good, especially with a rejuvenated Willis McGahee scoring mass amounts of touchdowns and Joe Flacco avoiding the sophomore slump. The Pittsburgh/Baltimore games are going to be lots of fun to watch this season.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit

For some reason, this matchup scares me. I had the same feeling when the Steelers played the Bengals two weeks ago, and we know how that ended, but I think the feeling just means that I'm terrified that 2009 is turning into 2006. Of course, minus Big Ben's face meeting the windshield of a car.

Atlanta over San Francisco (-2.5)

Best game of the week. Matt Ryan gets his swagger back and, hopefully for my fantasy team, he gets his swagger back to Roddy White. Roddy, I could use some catches, thanks. Another noteworthy item: Even after he was dick-ish in contract negotiations forever, I still can't wait for Michael Crabtree to don the 49'er jersey, he's just simply fun to watch.

Denver over New England (-3)

I just wrote an entire column about how Kyle Orton was a winner. You think I'm going to turn back that quickly? I think not. But this is more about Denver's defense than anything else. Brian Dawkins is still one of the scariest humans on this planet that I love watching no matter what team he's playing for. And Tom Brady just hasn't looked like Tom Brady, so I have faith in the unbeaten Broncos to stay that way.

Houston over Arizona (-5.5)

Arizona = overrated. Houston = overrated. So it's the battle of the OR's, and I'm sticking with my sleeper. I haven't picked against them yet, and I need this to be a statement week so I stop making fun of myself for making this pick. Can't I at least get to week double-digits before I start throwing my predictions in the trash bin?

Jacksonville (PK) over Seattle

Matt Hasselbeck just looks...old. I know he's only in his early-thirties, but gosh, that guy went bald faster than anyone I've ever seen. And he's been injured too, so that doesn't bode well for the 'Hawks. I'll take Jacksonville by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee

Tennessee as the best 0-4 team ever? News Flash! They're still 0-4! I don't get it, they weren't that good last year anyway. They skated through an easy schedule and got beat by a better team in January. Then they lost Albert Haynesworth and, somehow, that trade went under the radar because people were still picking them to win the AFC South. Pah-lease.

N.Y. Jets (-1.5) over Miami

I just don't think the Jets defense will be fooled by anything Miami throws at them. And speaking of the Wildcat, the first full Dolphins game I watched since the inception of the pro-style-option-offense was two weeks ago on MNF, and I was really surprised that Miami doesn't fun it more than 20 percent of its' plays. I was shocked. Seriously. If it has worked so well in single games in the past, why don't they make it a huge chunk of the entire offensive playbook?

This was fun, let's do it again next week. Thanks for reading.

Last week: 9-5

Overall: 38-24

Just Win, Baby

I spy a quarterback who hasn't had a losing season since high school.

I spy a quarterback who started four straight bowl games in college.

I spy a quarterback who has over a .750 winning percentage in the NFL.

What's your first guess? Peyton Manning? Ben Roethlisberger?

Wrong and wrong.

The answer is Kyle Orton. Yes, Kyle Orton. Once more, Kyle. Orton.

The man simply wins football games. Don't believe me? Look it up. He played in four straight bowl games at Purdue after having to deal with the pressure of being the next Boilermaker quarterback after Drew Brees, and he flourished. People forget that he was a favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2005 before he got hurt in two straight games. But seriously, no matter where Orton has been, he has been a winner.

Purdue? Check.

Chicago? Check. As a Bears rookie, Orton was thrown into the 2005 season after Rex Grossman got hurt. What did he do? He went 10-5 (ho hum) including an 8-game winning streak (ho hum) that won Chicago the NFC North (ho hum). His stats weren't pretty (51.9 completion percentage, 9 TD/13 INT), sure, but he won football games. And isn't that all you want in the NFL? All the Bears did was bench him for the playoffs in 2005 (29-21 loss to Carolina) and all of 2006. But Orton went 2-1 in 2007 and then 9-7 in 2008 with a team that really overachieved.

I know what you're thinking, Orton has been dependent on having great teams around him. The Bears always had a great defense that won games for them, but you can't have just any J.P. Losman under center and expect to win more than six games per season. It just won't work. That's where an expert game manager is needed, and Kyle Orton is the best in the business. He makes fewer mistakes than most quarterbacks because he is given less opportunity to single-handedly win games, but he still doesn't make those game-crippling mistakes. He takes what he's given and does exactly what the coaches expect him to do: not lose games.

Needless to say, now that you know how big a Kyle Orton fan I am, I just didn't see why everyone thought the Orton/Cutler trade was SO bad for Denver. Would someone like to tell me what Denver lost? Ok, I'll enlighten you. The Broncos lost a quarterback who publicized that he hadn't been a part of a winning season since high school. SINCE HIGH SCHOOL?? Wow.

So, if you're a fan of a team playing a team currently quarterbacked by Kyle Orton, just beware that anything can happen in sixty minutes with a pure winner under center. Make fun of him all you want, but know that Kyle Orton is having the best year of his career (five touchdown's, no INT's in four games in 2009 and Denver is 4-0), and you have to take notice.

Because "The Winner" is coming for you next.

NFL Picks - Week 4

I swear I'd like to write more about these, I'll try to next week. Here we go!

Houston (-9.5) over Oakland

Jacksonville over Tennessee (-3)

New England (-2) over Baltimore

Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland

N.Y. Giants (-9.5) over Kansas City

Detroit over Chicago (-10)

Washington (-7) over Tampa Bay

Indy (-9.5) over Seattle

N.Y. Jets over New Orleans (-7)

Miami over Buffalo (-2)

San Francisco (-9.5) over St. Louis

Denver over Dallas (-3)

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over San Diego

Green Bay over Minnesota (-3.5)

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 29-19

NFL Picks - Week 3

New York Jets (-1) over Tennessee

Houston (-4) over Jacksonville

Philly (-7.5) over Kansas City

Baltimore (-13.5) over Cleveland

N.Y. Giants (-6.5) over Tampa Bay

Washington (-6.5) over Detroit

Green Bay (-6.5) over St. Louis

San Francisco over Minnesota (6.5)

Atlanta over New England (-4.5)

Seattle over Chicago (-2.5)

New Orleans (-6) over Buffalo

San Diego (-5) over Miami

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Cincinnati

Denver (-2.5) over Oakland

Arizona (-3) over Indy

Dallas (-8.5) over Carolina

Last week: 10-6

Overall: 19-13

NFL Picks - Week 2

After going 9-7 against the spread in week one, I'm back in the grind of picking NFL games. Here are the picks (home teams in bold):

Falcons (-6) over Panthers

Vikings (-10) over Lions

Packers (-9) over Bengals

Texans over Titans (-7)

Raiders over Chiefs (-2)

Jets over Patriots (-4)

Eagles (-3) over Saints

Redskins (-10) over Rams

Cardinals over Jaguars (-3)

Buccaneers over Bills (-4)

Seahawks (-1) over 49'ers

Broncos (-4) over Browns

Steelers (-3) over Bears

Giants over Cowboys (-3)

Colts (-3) over Dolphins

Last week: 9-7

Overall: 9-7

Enjoy the day. Thanks for reading.

Super Bowl Predictions: There's nothing like a repeat

FOOTBALL STARTS TONIGHT! YES!!!!! FINALLY!!!! Doesn't it just feel right?

I'm not going to do much writing about this subject, seeing as how I have class today and because the season kicks off tonight.

By the way, I'm going to have a weekly picks column, which will be coming soon, but for now, I'm taking the Steelers over the Titans, 24-13. Pittsburgh hasn't lost an opener in forever, and they certainly won't lose one in yet another "Defense of the Ring" season. Biggest key to the game that no one is talking about? The only injury the Steelers couldn't recover from last year was the season-ending injury to fantastic punter Daniel Sepulveda. Well, Danny's back, so you can expect Kerry Collins to be operating inside his own ten quite a lot tonight.

Anyway, here are my season predictions, team-by-team, postseason awards, and the Super Bowl Champion. I went through and (hastily) picked every game of the season, so these should be pretty accurate (yeah, right, I expect to be laughed at by week 8, at the latest).

AFC North:

Pittsburgh Steelers - 13-3* (#2 seed based on AFC record)

Baltimore Ravens - 11-5*

Cincinnati Bengals - 8-8

Cleveland Browns - 4-12

AFC South:

Indianapolis Colts - 13-3*

Houston Texans - 11-5* (#5 seed based on AFC record)

Tennessee Titans - 8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars - 6-10

AFC East:

New England Patriots - 14-2*

New York Jets - 5-11

Buffalo Bills - 4-12

Miami Dolphins - 3-13

AFC West:

San Diego Chargers - 9-7*

Kansas City Chiefs - 4-12

Denver Broncos - 4-12

Oakland Raiders - 1-15

NFC North:

Green Bay Packers - 12-4*

Minnesota Vikings - 12-4*

Chicago Bears - 6-10

Detroit Lions - 2-14

NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons - 12-4* (#2 seed based on NFC record)

New Orleans Saints - 10-6

Carolina Panthers - 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3-13

NFC East:

New York Giants - 12-4*

Philadelphia Eagles - 12-4* (#5 seed based on NFC record)

Dallas Cowboys - 11-5

Washington Redskins - 9-7

NFC West:

Seattle Seahawks - 11-5*

Arizona Cardinals - 10-6

San Francisco 49'ers - 4-12

St. Louis Rams - 3-13

AFC Playoffs:

Wild Card Games: (3) Indianapolis over (6) Baltimore, (5) Houston over (4) San Diego

Divisional Round: (2) Pittsburgh over Indianapolis, (1) New England over Houston

Conference Championship: Pittsburgh over New England

NFC Playoffs:

Wild Card Games: (3) New York Giants over (6) Minnesota, (5) Philadelphia over (4) Seattle

Divisional Round: New York over (2) Atlanta, (1) Green Bay over Philadelphia

Conference Championship: Green Bay over New York

SUPER BOWL XLIV:

Pittsburgh Steelers - 27

Green Bay Packers - 17

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

MVP: Tom Brady - QB, New England Patriots

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson - RB, Minnesota Vikings

Defensive Player of the Year: Mario Williams - DE, Houston Texans

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Percy Harvin - WR, Minnesota Vikings

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Rey Maualuga - Cincinnati Bengals

Coach of the Year: Jim Mora Jr. - Seattle Seahawks

Comeback Player of the Year: Carson Palmer - QB, Cincinnati Bengals

IT'S NFL TIME! BE EXCITED! CAN YOU TELL THAT I AM?

Sports at their finest: High school football kicks off

As schools open for class, stadiums open for Friday night release. It's as pure as it gets: it's high school football.

The experience of seeing a high school football game comes with very little hoopla - no rock bands (only student marching bands), few poor sports (only enthused student sections with creative chants), no pre-game B4 bomber entrances (only birds against a blue sky) - and the game is full of raw emotion and love of football.

I have a special connection with this genre of sport; I got my start in the industry reporting high school football two years ago today. I learned to love everything about the environment at high school games: the pep rallies, the food, homecoming week, alma maters, the stadiums, and the games.

I've heard some talk recently about how boring high school football can be when compared to the college and professional games, but I'm not sure I agree. See, the same people that think that feel they are too big for the "little" game, and feel burdened when they have to go cover high school kids.

That's garbage.

I think people who say that have lost touch with what is great about the high school game, if not sports in general. With high school football, you have to take the little things and appreciate them for what they are.

I love that townspeople show up to watch practice on a day-to-day basis. I love that seemingly the entire town shows up for a game under the lights, and that the game is a culmination of an entire week of waiting to watch the team play. The aura around high school football is something that cannot be matched. I will always love standing on the sidelines under the lights and being able to feel the electricity of a new seasons' hopes on the first week of the season or the state title hopes of week nine. And I truly hope I never let myself get too "big" to fully appreciate everything high school football has to offer, and everything high school football has done for Grant Burkhardt, the reporter.

If I ever let myself get there, you have permission to take away my press pass.

Thanks for reading.

New Schedule Previews: Part Three - NFL

This is the final part of my three-part column detailing the best games of the newly released schedules in the NHL, College Football, and now, the NFL. I hope you enjoyed the previews.

All this talk of a full fall sports slate is making me want to skip the rest of summer just so I can watch football all weekend, every weekend. But training camps open in a little over a week, so I guess I can wait until then to start getting excited (who am I kidding, I'm already stoked). Without waiting any longer, here are my picks for the five best games of the 2009-10 NFL schedule.

5. Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (September 10, 2009)

I'm giving this a spot on the list mostly because it is the Opening Kickoff game featuring the teams most AFC fans wanted to see meet in the playoffs last year: the best record in the AFC during the 2008 regular season (Titans) against the now-Super Bowl Champions (Steelers). Sure, this game has the potential to be great, as many do, but I don't think it really will be. Pittsburgh has won five straight season openers and is great at Heinz Field, cold weather or not. Hometown biases to the curb, the Steelers aren't about to start the season 0-1.

4. My sleepers have important stretches: Houston Texans (weeks 9 through 13), Kansas City Chiefs (weeks 13 through 17)

I've been quite vocal since the schedules were released that I thought two AFC teams were poised for breakout 2009 campaigns: the Texans and Chiefs. Taking a closer look at each teams' schedule, both teams have a five week stretch that will prove critical to their playoff hopes. From my point of view, if Houston can stay healthy and finish 4-2 in the AFC South they will have a great chance to play deep into January. The big stretch for the Texans is: week 9 - at Indy, week 10 - bye, week 11 - vs. Tennessee, week 12 - vs. Indy, week 13 - at Jacksonville.

For Kansas City, the schedule sets up less favorably, as the AFC West will play the AFC North and NFC East (they play all four NFCE teams in a row from weeks 3 through 6), but they can really capitalize on the second half schedule, where they could legitimately finish 6-2. They might even be able to run the table in the last five, when they host Denver, Buffalo, and Cleveland in weeks 13-15, and then travel to Cincinnati and Denver to finish the season.

Wow, that was quite the word count for two teams that have the potential to combine for 10 wins.

3. Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (November 1)

This match-up interests me mostly because of what these teams records could be entering November; Seattle could be 4-2, whereas the 'Boys could be 2-4 and Jerry Jones would be wanting to press his Dr. Evil fiery trap door button on Wade Phillips. A healthy Matt Hasselbeck and a new coaching staff will have the Seahawks back to NFC relevance in 2009 (mark it down, 11-12 wins). I think this could be the turning point in the season for both teams as you'll see a desperate Cowboys team trying to save its season and a calm Seattle squad coming into its own. That makes for great football, no doubt.

2. Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (September 27)

I wavered between this and my #1 game because of the potential stratospheric amount of points that could be scored, but no matter, this will be a great early-season treat for football fans. Peyton Manning has been called "too old" recently, but, like LaDanian Tomlinson, he's a HOF'er, he'll be fine. Indy's schedule is so soft that, with the reemergence of a running game, they could finish 12-4. Arizona, like Indy, has no problem putting up points, and lacks somewhat on the defensive side of the ball, so contrasting styles be damned, this has "shootout" written all over it.

1. Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (December 27)

Continue to eat leftover Christmas ham and enjoy the best NFL game of the season from the (hopefully snowy) Meadowlands, where the epitome of great American football may, once again, decide the top seed in the NFC. Don't expect another 34-28 showdown, but both teams play fantastic defense and run the ball extremely well. The teams combined for seven touchdowns and over 400 yards rushing in one of the best games of 2008. Don't expect this one to be much different.

Buy another TV, get a cable splitter, and enjoy the best seasons in sports. Thanks for reading.